Renewable Energy Transition and Inclusive Growth in ASEAN: Evidence from Panel Data and Spatial Robustness Analysis

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between green economy transition and inclusive growth in selected ASEAN economies using panel data analysis and spatial robustness checks. Green economy transition is proxied by renewable energy consumption share, while inclusive growth is measured by GNI per capita, PPP (constant international $). Using a balanced panel dataset of seven ASEAN economies Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, and Cambodia over the 2010–2021 period, this study estimates Pooled OLS, Random Effects, and Fixed Effects models. Model selection tests indicate that the Fixed Effects Model is the most appropriate baseline specification. Spatial diagnostics using Moran’s I and spatially augmented models are employed as robustness checks, followed by an additional test excluding Singapore as a high-income outlier. The results show that renewable energy consumption share has a negative and statistically significant relationship with GNI per capita. This finding remains robust across spatial specifications and after excluding Singapore. Spatial diagnostics indicate weak spatial dependence, suggesting that the green economy–inclusive growth relationship in ASEAN is shaped mainly by domestic structural characteristics. The findings do not imply that renewable energy harms welfare. Rather, renewable energy consumption share in ASEAN may not yet fully represent a modern, productivity-enhancing green economy transition. The study concludes that renewable energy expansion should be supported by technological upgrading, green investment, institutional capacity, and inclusive policy design.

Keywords:  green economy transition; renewable energy consumption; inclusive growth; ASEAN economies; panel data; spatial robustness.